Canada: The total canadian potato storage holdings are above the three-year average

“Exports to the U.S. have declined for many regions compared to last year mostly due to the oversupply and lower pricing on russets out of the Pacific Northwest. We can also see the impact on storage levels of increased planted acres and a very good harvest in the processing crops in Manitoba and Alberta and the fresh crop in BC; contrasted with a very wet and difficult growing season in Eastern Canada reflected in their stock levels down from 2022,” according to a recent UPGC press release.

Fresh Sector

In total, based on Statistics Canada holding reports, Canada has 1.08m tons of potatoes for the table sector in storage as of December 1, 3.7% below the amount in storage at the same time a year previous, but still higher than the three-year average. The majority of the fresh potatoes are grown in the eastern provinces where stocks fell by 921,000 sacs compared to last year.

“Even if we add in the table stocks of Manitoba and BC two other strong fresh markets, overall stocks are still down slightly year over year. However, with export levels declining due to oversupply in the U.S., particularly in the Pacific Northwest, and reports of ‘fair’ movement for both the Canadian and American Thanksgiving, many are looking to December for better pull leading up to the holidays,” the UPGC experts added.

Processing Sector

Potato holdings intended for processing have increased by 13.7%, representing a record high for Canada in this industry and a 442,400-ton increase over the previous year. This year’s notable increase in chip stock in Ontario over the previous year was primarily driven by increases in frozen processing stocks located in Manitoba and Alberta. After two years of shortages in the United States, there is currently an overabundance. The good news is that the demand for frozen fries worldwide is still growing, and American production capacity is still growing.

Exports of French fries from Canada have increased from the previous year, with exports to overseas markets seeing a rise of slightly more than 4%. In the upcoming months, there might still be opportunities for export given the struggling crop throughout most of Europe. Since the supply of potatoes in the Atlantic Northeast is limited due to harvest losses and possible future storage problems, there might also be some movement of potatoes from the West.

Seed Sector

Seed Inventory on December 1, 2023, is 573,440 tons which is 5.7% below 2022 and also below the three-year average, perhaps not surprising if we look at certified acres planted in 2023.

“We can see that more than half of the major seed-producing areas reported decreases in planted acreage in 2023 compared to the year prior certified acres in Canada are at their lowest level since 2018,” the experts declared.

Since the beginning of 2022, the seed industry has seen the same weather patterns and increases in input costs as every other industry, but it hasn’t always seen the corresponding value increases that other industries may have seen. The good news is that most regions of the nation reported very good seed potato crops this year. While some regions or varietals may experience supply constraints similar to those experienced last year, growers should generally be able to obtain high-quality seed potatoes nationwide.

Disappearance to end November 2023

The total disappearance for Canada up to the end of November was 1.70m tons, approximately 128,800 tons less than in 2022. The country has 5.35m tons of potatoes in storage as of December 1st; almost half of that is in Manitoba and Alberta, with PEI a close third.

Although the lower total disappearance this year may be concerning with production levels at an all-time high, the UPGC experts can see that this year’s level is in line with previous years other than 2022. Last year there was a significant shortage of potatoes in the U.S. that caused a great deal of movement early in the marketing year, particularly in the processing sector.

“We have used estimated production figures per sector to look at disappearance in Fresh, Processing, and Seed. When looking at early season disappearance it is important to note that cull rates are up in most of the eastern provinces due to the abundant rain and low levels of sunshine throughout the growing season, causing losses both in the field and at harvest, as well as many cases of hollowheart in the russet crop. There were also losses in the processing sector in Alberta and Manitoba during harvest, due to both impacts of hail storms earlier in the season as well as issues with lack of storage and oversupply due to higher than expected yields on higher planted acreage,” they summed up.