Mexico (Sinaloa): Excessive potato acreage raises concerns about possible market saturation

The area planted with potatoes in Sinaloa remains at high levels during the current agricultural cycle, a situation that generates concern among producers due to a possible saturation of the markets at harvest time, especially if weather conditions favor high yields per hectare.

According to Marte Vega Román, president of Fundación Produce Sinaloa, the area registered to date amounts to 15,700 hectares, a figure very similar to that of the previous agricultural cycle .

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The area registered to date is 15,700 hectares, a similar area to last year. "Yes, it’s a large area, and even more so if the crops grow in good conditions, because the production is very high," he said.

The overlap with Sonora could saturate national markets

Vega Román warned that this scenario is compounded by the coincidence of the agricultural cycle with other producing regions, particularly with Obregón, Sonora, where the area planted with potatoes has also grown significantly.

“The cycle practically coincides with ours. In Obregón, the acreage has grown considerably, and I believe it’s very similar to what exists here. Those two regions, at harvest time, saturate the markets, there’s no doubt about it,” he stated.

Excessive land area already caused losses in the previous cycle

The leader recalled that last year was negative for the potato sector, largely due to the excess of planted area, which led to marketing problems.

“We must be very careful, since last year was completely negative, and this was partly due to the fact that a lot was planted again, because many producers already had the seed,” he explained.

Producers are switching to potatoes due to the low profitability of corn.

Vega Román pointed out that the lack of profitability in other crops, mainly corn, has led farmers to venture into alternative crops such as potatoes, although this involves significant risks.

“The profitability of corn is practically zero, which is why many producers continue to bet on potatoes, but with the imminent risk of saturating the markets in this harvest,” he stressed.

Current surface area exceeds historical levels in Sinaloa

He added that historically the area planted with potatoes in Sinaloa was smaller.

“Traditionally, 13,000 hectares were planted, and even then there were risks in very good years. Today we are close to 16,000 hectares, which is too much,” he stated.

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Although the surface area is decreasing, it is still high: AARFS

For his part, Luis Xavier Zazueta Ibarra, president of the Southern Fuerte River Farmers Association (AARFS), indicated that although this cycle presents a slight reduction in surface area compared to the previous one, the level remains considerable.

“This year we have less land than last year, almost 15,800 hectares; while the previous cycle was around 17,500 hectares,” he explained.

Record potato production worsened marketing in 2024-2025

Zazueta Ibarra recalled that the previous cycle’s production was historic, which caused serious marketing problems.

“Last year, we produced 100,000 tons more than usual, which completely saturated the markets. We had never exceeded 286,000 tons without facing problems,” he explained.

In the 2024-2025 cycle, the harvest reached 398,774 tons of potatoes, while for the 2025-2026 cycle the estimate is 315,875 tons.

Uncertain forecasts and weather could reduce yields

For the current agricultural cycle, Zazueta Ibarra pointed out that there are still uncertainties in the production forecasts.

“Forecasts indicate that we could be above 300,000 tons, but it all depends on the crop’s development. It could be a bad year and the average could drop,” he commented.

He added that the high temperatures have affected the development of the crop.

“The crop is more severely affected by the heat, which could reduce the yield. We might only reach 300,000 tons, far from the almost 400,000 of last year,” he concluded.