EEUU: Wright: decline in Idaho potato yields will balance supply with demand

For the 2014-15 season, Wright said total U.S. potato shipments were about 103 million cwt., but lower yields in Idaho last fall will translate to estimated national output of close to 97.9 million cwt. for the 2015-16 marketing season. “For the first time in five years, the (supply and demand) is actually balanced,” he said in the presentation.

Slightly better pricing is expected during the second half of the 2015-16 marketing season, he said during the presentation. Wright reviewed sales numbers from AC Nielsen on potato sales and said retail trends show potato category workhorses such as russet burbank bag and bulk sales are slowly losing ground to specialty potatoes, Wright said sales declines continue heaviest in Russet varieties, although he said sales data showed red potatoes didn’t show any growth for the first time in years.

For 52 weeks ending Nov. 21, Nielsen retail data shows total traditional potatoes varieties declined 4.9% in sales and dropped 2.9% in volume. Yellow potatoes continue steady growth, even with higher retail prices. Specialty potato items are increasing from a very small base, he said.

Petite potatoes now account for 5% of category pounds (10% annual growth) and 12% of category dollars (15% annual growth), he said. Organic potato sales now account for 1.7% of category pounds (28% annual growth) and 3% of category dollars (27% annual growth).

With poor prices for grain crops — other planting options for growers — Wright said economic models point to about a 2% increase in potato acreage for the 2016 planting season, which could create below-break even prices for growers next year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ix2cSIahDEA

“The bottom line is next year is going to be very difficult and I think we all need to be very cautious.”