Belgium: Crazy...the potato market returns to 10 euros
Anyone who had predicted a few weeks ago that the potato market would fall below €20 would have been called crazy, and even more so that the market would fall back to €10. And yet, the unthinkable happened.
Viaverda/Fiwap quoted between €10 and €12.50 (-€4.25 in two weeks) for Fontane and Challenger on Wednesday, April 23, with the comment that the mood is "quiet" and that there is enough (read: too much) supply.
From the processors’ corner, the silence is deafening. What has happened and what will happen to the potato market, which has averaged €35 per 100 kilos for two consecutive seasons at this time? Apparently, there has been a development, which may still be ongoing, that is difficult for those interested in the potato market to observe.
High demand for raw materials
Potato chips are grown and delivered or stored for later delivery in a black box (read: factory), and the final product is then sold worldwide. Sales of final products have increased rapidly in recent years. Even before a single potato chip line or factory had been built, another was already under development. There was also a huge need for raw materials to keep the potato chip production lines running and thus meet the demand for final products. Until a few weeks ago.
The cooling of the finished product market has been occurring for some time, but the signs have been somewhat ignored. After all, no changes were possible, and the potato supply was known. Now that the emergency brake has been pulled, virtually all European chip processors no longer want to buy potatoes. First, the most expensive contracted potatoes must be harvested and the rest must be avoided as much as possible (bundled delivery and/or free product), resulting in a market price implosion.
The transition to the new season is under pressure
It seems clear that the current market situation is not conducive to the transition to the new season (2025/26). The choice, considering the area for the 2025 harvest, was made at a time when the potato market was still booming and processors were encouraging growers to grow more land by offering them favorable conditions. Although the area in France appears to have shrunk somewhat over time, the area in the EU-4 will increase by at least 5%. In a normal growing season, the outlook for the 2025 harvest is not very positive.
The issue, however, is not so much the acreage and growing season (although these partly determine the mood) but rather the erratic course of global sales of finished products. Apparently, it’s difficult to control sales of potato chips, which ultimately affects the producer and could continue to affect the 2026 harvest season. And as one source close to the company says: "We’re back to square one, but we don’t know yet."
Fuente: boerenbusiness.nl
