Europe: Historic crisis in the potato market in 2025

The potato sector in the NEPG zone (Belgium, Germany, France, and the Netherlands) is experiencing a crisis that could mark a turning point in its recent history. According to the latest data released on September 5, 2025, in Gembloux, the cultivated area in 2025 reached 608,000 hectares across the EU-4, representing a 7% increase compared to the previous year. In absolute terms, 40,000 additional hectares have been allocated to ware potatoes compared to 2024.

The result is a record harvest estimated at 27.3 million tons (Mt), i.e., 2.65 Mt more than in 2024, equivalent to an 11% year-over-year increase. This growth has been driven by several factors: expectations of increased demand from the processing industry, expanded processing capacity, attractive contract prices, and the perception of potatoes as a profitable crop compared to other agricultural alternatives.

An excess of supply with no outlet in the market

The problem arises when this sharp increase in production fails to find a market capable of absorbing it. According to the NEPG , a significant portion of the harvest cannot be stored, which has already forced the redirection of tens of thousands of tons to animal feed, biogas plants, and composting. This situation reflects a structural imbalance between supply and demand, which threatens farmers’ profitability.

The organization warns that while production costs in the fields continue to rise, free market purchase prices have reached historically low levels. This is a scenario in which, despite record production, many farms will incur economic losses in 2025.

Outlook for 2026: Risk of productive collapse

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook is uncertain. The NEPG anticipates a significant reduction in planted area, as a response from farmers to the losses they suffered. The real question lies in the magnitude of this adjustment and how processors, who have encouraged expansion in recent years, will respond.

The organization warns that we are experiencing a real growth crisis: what in 2025 is a problem of excess supply could transform into a demand crisis in 2026 if farmers lack the financial capacity to maintain production. The financial sustainability of farms is at stake.

The need for a chain approach

Faced with this situation, the NEPG insists on the need for closer dialogue throughout the entire value chain. The message is clear: "produce what you can sustainably and preserve your resources." In other words, production must be aligned with real market demand, avoiding imbalances that compromise both farmers and the entire sector.

The organization emphasizes that processors and producers must coordinate their expectations and future plans. Otherwise, the sector risks a supply collapse that would jeopardize the stability of the entire supply chain.

Agriculture, sustainability and climate change

Beyond market tensions, the NEPG points out that potato cultivation faces a dual challenge: economic and environmental. With climate change accelerating extreme weather events, the costs and risks associated with potato production are increasing. Furthermore, this activity places increasing pressure on key resources such as soil, water, and biodiversity.

Therefore, the organization urges farmers to reflect: it’s not just about producing what processors expect, but rather doing so under economically viable and environmentally sustainable conditions. Preserving natural resources is the only way to ensure the continuity of production in the medium and long term.